Moreover, fiscal policy has gone from a positive factor for the economy to a negative one. Overall, we believe the federal funds rate is at or near its peak for this cycle and that intermediate to long-term rates peaked last fall.īecause the economy responds to changes in Fed policy with a lag, the risks to growth and inflation appear skewed to the downside after more than a year of tightening policy. A shift to easing policy would only likely be seen if the economy were to fall into recession or if financial stability issues were to re-emerge. We look for the Fed to keep its policy stance largely on hold in the second half of the year, although one more rate hike is possible. If rate hikes are paused, does that imply the cycle is over … or is it just "skipping" a meeting and then resuming hikes? Or will the Fed actually need to increase the size of its rate hikes-a jump-to catch up to inflation? There is a lot of speculation about the Fed's moves in the second half of the year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. developed (x-USD) = Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index. Agency Bond Total Return Index TIPS = Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Index Short-term US Agg = Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index EM (USD) = Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Bond Index Securitized = Bloomberg US Securitized Index Agencies = Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 5-7 Years Bond Index Municipals = Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Treasuries = Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index Intermediate-term US Agg = Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index US Aggregate = Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 10+ Years Bond Index IG Floaters = Bloomberg US Floating Rate Note Index IG Corporates = Bloomberg U.S. Indexes representing the investment types are: Preferreds = ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index HY Corporates = Bloomberg US High Yield Very Liquid (VLI) Index Bank Loans = Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index Long-term US Agg = Bloomberg U.S. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Total returns assume reinvestment of interest and capital gains. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Investing.Bond Funds, Bond ETFs, and Preferred Securities.ADRs, Foreign Ordinaries & Canadian Stocks.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ETFs.Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Mutual Funds.Benefits and Considerations of Mutual Funds.
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